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Bubbles in China's economic cycle


By Chen Daofu, Finance Research Institute, Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC)

Report No 118, 2014 (Total 4617)


Economic bubbles are an extreme form of structural imbalance. They are common in economic transformation periods.

China has seen three major self-circulations over recent years. They are twin surpluses-financial expansion in trade sectors-foreign exchange reserves, land finance-real estate-financial system, and production-investment self circulation. The self-circulations are part of national economy circulation and a way of economic restructuring. The phases of "survival of the fittest," "bad money drives out good" and "Ponzi Scheme" appeared one after another with overexpansion and crowding out effects. Like cancers, the bubbles may threaten the whole system.

China has witnessed the burst of bubbles in international circulation, which resulted in a large economic adjustment in 2008. But there has been no fundamental adjustment in China’s overcapacity and the land finance-real estate-financial system self-circulation.