By Xie Yang　

Date: 2004/05/10

Abstract:

Along with the changing diet and market restructuring, the phony demand on grain based on rationing had faded. A temporary decline of per capita demand and rational consumption pattern is observed. The former computation model based on unitary index in the age of planned economy had often overestimated the demand for grains. This overestimation had coupled with the cumulated overstocking of grain and the lagging of reform in grain management system, leading to exacerbated negative impact from over-estimation. As a matter of fact, the balancing point of demand-supply of grains should be put on a set of indexes, including the gross output, urban grain commodities (including animal feed) in circulation, and optimal turn-over stock.