Liu Shijin, Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC)

Research Report No 75, 2015 (Total 4760)

Abstract:

Since 2014, people have reached a common consensus that China's economy has entered a state of new normal. They are generally concerned about whether the high speed of economic growth will drop back too fast in a short period of time, where is the bottom of medium-high speed growth, how to achieve a stable transition during the economic growth and how to embark on a platform leading to enthusiastic and sustainable development. This paper holds that the change of transition mode for China's economic growth over the past five years is in line with the law of economic development. If the first half of transition mainly dealt with cognitive problems whereas the present second half will face downward pressure and relevant risks. The medium-high speed of growth may hit the bottom either this year or next year. Efforts should be made to combine buffer-based macro-economic policy with efficiency-oriented reform measures to accelerate the transition and rebalance. The key to becoming a high-income country is to deepen the reform of related areas to pave the way for overall and sustainable increasing of factor productivity.