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Liu Shijin

New Impetus for the Economic Growth of China in the Late Stage of Industrialization

2015-08-26

By Zhao Changwen & Xu Zhaoyuan, Research Department of Industrial Economy of DRC, & Zhu Hongming, Research Institute of Finance of DRC

China witnessed entry into the late stage development of industrialization around 2012, which is in line with the economic performance under the state of new normal. During that phase, the institutional environment for enterprise development should be transformed into a highly open, unified and fair one based on orderly competition and an incentive and innovation mechanism. Viewing from the supply side, the new impetus for economic growth in this phase rests largely on the promotion of efficiency. 1. In respect of factor input, prior to China's entry into the late stage of industrialization, the major forces propelling economic growth were capital accumulation and efficiency increase. With the advance of industrialization, the contribution of labor growth will show a downward trend. 2. The contribution of growth by the increase of labor force will fall further and that of capital accumulation also has an intrinsic need to decline. 3. In respect of factor supply, the new impetus mainly comes from the improvement of factor quality, optimized distribution of resources and innovation-driven development. As regards the demand side, the new impetus for growth chiefly results from the increase of household consumption. 1. Before China's entry into the late stage of industrialization, investment, consumption and export all made key contributions to economic growth. 2. In the new phase, the new impetus for demand growth will depend mostly on household consumption. In the late stage of industrialization, with a shift in the mode of development, government performance should also change, which include the following aspects: 1.The production-oriented government should be transformed into a service-oriented one. In particular, the local government should shift its focus of competition on providing favorable policies to one on shaping business environment, thus forming a national governance system that can be favorably driven by the new driving force. 2. The government should deepen reform in an all-around way with a view to establishing a unified, open and market-guide system conducive to the development of incentive and innovation mechanism. 3. The government should establish relevant systems and mechanisms in the interest of household consumption. 4. In order to maintain the basic stability of macro-economic performance, the government should guard against four major risks such as excessive credit crunch, inadequate financial policy, expanded overcapacity and wild fluctuations in real estate market.