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Analysis of Foreign Trade Performance in the Second Half of 2015 and Outlook on 2016


By Zhao Fujun & Zhao Jinping, Research Team on “Analysis of Foreign Trade Performance”, Research Department of Foreign Economic Relations, DRC

Research Report No 194, 2015 (Total NO 4879) 2015-12-25


To have a timely grasp of China’s export performance, we conducted questionnaire surveys on difficulties and problems facing foreign trade businesses so as to offer objective evidence for policy adjustment. In recent years, the research team on “foreign trade situation analysis” has kept conducting questionnaire surveys twice a year. The present survey was launched in October 2015, and collected effective questionnaires from 650 foreign trade enterprises in 11 provinces and municipalities. Through an overall review of the survey findings conducted respectively in autumn last year, in spring and autumn this year, it is noticed that export volume continued to decline this year, with merely a small number of companies seeing an increase in export. Export prices continued to fall and most enterprises’ export profit margins continued to drop. The surveyed enterprises held fewer orders year on year and the proportion of enterprises holding mid-term and long-term orders was decreasing. It is predicted that export situation will be more severe next year. Reduced global market demand and increased labor cost are the main factors restricting export growth this year. Enterprises suggest that the government adopt relevant policy measures to stabilize foreign trade growth such as enhancing export tax rebates and promoting trade facilitation level.

Key words: foreign trade performance, questionnaire survey, analysis