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Retrospect of Chinese Monetary Policy Performance in 2015 and Prospect of 2016(No.51, 2016)


By Zhu Hongming & Chen Ning, Research Institute of Finance, DRC

Research report No.51, 2016 (Total 4934) 2016-4-26

Abstract: In 2015, China’s monetary policy was featured generally by a robust and slightly-easy performance; money creation mechanism remained smooth, money creation channels witnessed significant changes, the importance of monetary multiplier and net security investment rose greatly; inventory quantity of social financing grew rapidly, and its relationship with M2 growth rate became reversed; nominal interest rate dropped greatly but real interest rate kept basically stable; the targeted regulation function of monetary policy was enhanced. In 2016, China’s monetary policy will basically maintain its robust and slightly-easy performance; monetary multiplier will still be the major channel for money creation; the discrepancy between M2 growth rate and the growth rate of social financing inventory quantity will be notably enlarged; structural monetary policy will continue to play an important role. To make sure that monetary policy will effectively support the supply-side structural reform, we need to adjust the caliber of social financing inventory quantity’s growth rate and keep an appropriate monetary policy performance. We should actively prevent and properly handle financial risks and keep money creation mechanism unhindered; relevant policies and supporting measures for reform need to be made to prevent further distortion of resource allocation structure caused by monetary policy.

Key words: monetary policy, social financing scale, M2, supply-side structural reform