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Growth Potential for China’s Mobile Market in the Next Decade: Development Trend and Policy Options(No.86, 2016)


By Wang Qing, Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Research Report No.86, 2016 (Total 4969)2016-06-23

Abstract: Since the turn of the new century, the demand for automobiles in China has kept an annual growth of around 20% featuring a “golden growth period”. By 2013, the auto market began to shift from high-speed growth to mid-speed growth. During this period, support from the expansion of total demand to market growth gradually edged down, while the positive role played by the supply side for future market development will gradually phase in. In the future, the vehicle market growth in China will continue falling. It is predicted that by 2025, China’s total vehicle ownership and the number of cars owned by every 1000 people will reach respectively 380-390 million and 270-275, and the number of new vehicles produced and sold will stand at 30 million. For a period to go, the main problem facing the auto industry and market will start to change, the car demand and market will also present new features and requirements, and development of the auto industry will rely more on the synergy between the supply side and the demand side. China should improve the supply-demand structure, take promoting energy-saving and environmentally-friendly vehicles as a main goal for development, and based on that, coordinate, formulate and implement policies for industries and consumption.

Key words: automobiles, mid-to-long term, potential, policies