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An Estimation of Total Peak Food Demand in China(No.36, 2016)


By Cheng Yu, Zhou Lin & Cheng Guangyan, Research Team on “The Estimation of China’s Peak Food Demand and Countermeasures” , Research Department of Rural Economy, DRC

Research Report No.36, 2016 (Total 1511) 2016-08-18

Abstract: Population and its structural characteristics have a decisive influence on total demand for food. Urbanization drive mainly relies on accelerating the transfer of rural population and the upgrading and transformation of food structure to increase total demand for food, but in the case of population aging, the decrease of total demand for food is caused by the decline of energy demand. Based on food structure changes of different groups of people and through a classified estimation of population structure and the aggregate number of population, an estimation and relevant analysis on total demand of food could be made in view of various factors including population growth, urbanization and population aging. Research findings show that driven by the transformation and upgrading of food structure and population growth, the increase in total demand for animal products has made forage grains the main factor to drive the growth of total demand for food. Forage grains will hit its peak of 519.71 million tons by 2030, and correspondingly, demand for food will drop to 198.58 million tons. Under the intersecting influence of these two factors, the peak of gross food demand (except for soybean oil and bean products) will reach 718.29 million tons.

Key words: grain, peak of gross demand, forecast