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A Predictive Analysis of Urbanization Drive in China(No. 99, 2017)


By Li Shantong, Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy of DRC, Wu Sanmang, China University of Geosciences & Gao Chunliang, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics

Research Report No. 99, 2017 (Total. 5174) 2017-8-24

Abstract: The international experience shows that when urbanization rate reaches 50% to 70%, urbanization drive would slow down. In 2015 China’s urbanization rate stood at 55.61%, and in the future, the urbanization drive in China will shift from acceleration to deceleration, which will exert an impact on China’s urbanization growth, city development and city systematic structure. This paper gives a brief introduction to the history of China's urbanization development and an overview on China’s future urbanization rate by a variety of methods. Research findings show that from 2016 to 2050, China’s urbanization growth will slow down and the average growth rate will increase by 0.793 percentage points calculated according to three kinds of forecasting methods. In 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, the urbanization rate will reach 60.34%, 68.38%, 75.37% and 81.63% respectively. The slowdown of urbanization will lead to the exposure of accumulated financial risks and the risks of real estate sector in China and the urbanization-based driving force to economic growth will become weakened. In the future, China's urbanization development should focus on the transformation from quantity expansion to quality upgrading.

Key words: urbanization, speed, reduced speed