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Assessment on the Main Economic and Social Risks and Impacts Facing China(No. 157, 2017)


By Wang Yiming, Zhang Chenghui, Gao Shiji, Chen Changsheng, Wu Zhenyu, Chen Daofu, Xu Wei, He Jianwu, Zhuo Xian, Zhu Hongming, Lan Zongmin & Li Chengjian Research Team on “Risk Prevention and Countermeasures during China’s Economic Transformation”, DRC

Research Report No. 157, 2017 (Total. 5232, 2017) 2017-11-24

Abstract: In the days to come, the long-term accumulated risks in China may be released intensively, and the economy will enter a period with a high incidence of financial risks. This paper gives an in-depth analysis of risks that may arise in the fields of finance, real estate, government debt, industrial transformation, population aging, social differentiation and external impacts. These risks will exert a huge impact and overlap with each other with a complicated transmission mechanism. If they are not properly handled, they might trigger a great negative influence on the economic and social development in China. In order to enhance the pertinent measures to preventing and resolving risks, this paper, based on the Delphi method, makes an evaluation on the interaction degree and occurrence probability of risks in various fields. The evaluation results show that the top four risk areas with great influence and high probability are respectively financial risks, real estate risks, government debt risks and corporate debt risks. China enjoys many advantages while facing various challenges in preventing and resolving these risks. We should focus on preventing and resolving the relevant risks in key areas, actively transforming the growth mode, adjusting structure, shifting drivers, deleveraging and preventing bubbles to ensure that systematic risks will not go beyond the bottom line.

Key words: risk areas, risk assessment, Delphi method