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The Development Trend and Goals of China’s Urban Housing Market from 2020 to 2050 (No.112, 2018)


By Deng Yusong & Shao Ting, Institute of Market Economy, DRC

Research Report, No.112, 2018 (Total 5387) 2018-7-13

Abstract: With the increased number of homes built in urban areas, each urban family had more than one house averagely during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. With the settlement of housing shortage problem across the board, the housing market performance experienced dramatic and periodic changes. In view of the development progress of housing market in advanced economies, the periodic changes of future economy and its structural adjustment, the total number and structural changes of Chinese population and the adjustment of policies relating to finance and land would constitute the major factors influencing the mid-to-long-term development of China’s housing market. From 2020 to 2050, the development of housing market will shift its focus from expanding the scale of newly built houses to improving the quality of residential houses. The proportion of added value of the real estate industry in GDP will continue to improve, but the proportion of added value of architectural industry will fall back. In the future, new supplies and demands of houses will swarm to cities and the stock housing market will play a more important role. The average living space per person in China will continue to improve steadily whereas the number of homes purchased as owners’ residences will drop stably. The government needs to closely follow the market development performance in the new era and set out the housing development goals in line with the demands of the times .

Key words: housing market, development trend, goals