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Forecast China’s Economic Growth Potential to 2035 through International Comparison (No.198, 2019)


By Jia Shen, Department of Development Strategy and Regional Economy, DRC

Research Report, No.198, 2019 (Total 5698) 2019-11-7

Abstract: According to the figures of global growth evaluation obtained from the United Nations international comparison data set, combined with the growth experience of Japan, South Korea, Singapore and other typical late-developing economies in their middle- and high-income stage and the relevant factors expected to be achieved in China in 2020, the paper analyzed the economic growth potential of China from 2021 to 2035. In order to realize the potential of growth, we need to effectively deal with the challenges such as the declining growth rate of labor force, aging of the population, low efficiency of capital output, and change in the environment for innovative development. In the future, we need to implement a more active population development strategy, raise the labor force participation rate, and stabilize employment of the general labor force. We need to improve the quality of education, promote education equity, and vigorously develop vocational and continuing education. We need to stick to the bottom line of investment rate, optimize investment structure, and improve investment efficiency. We also need to enhance our capacity for independent innovation and increase innovation investment and the efficiency of research and development.

Key words: late-developing economy, socialist modernization, growth accounting