By Ye Xingqing, Cheng Yu, Li Qing & Wu Zhenjun,  Research Department of Rural Economy, DRC; Zhang Yumei, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences; Liu Changxin, Science and Technology Strategy Consulting and Research Institute at Chinese Academy of Sciences

Research Report, No.333, 2021 (Total 6398) 2021-11-11

Abstract: The growth of the total volume of greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural activities in China has slowed down significantly in recent years. The emission intensity of agricultural activities is lower than that of economic activities. Agriculture is a sector with low carbon emissions. As regards emission composition, methane and nitrous oxide are the main gases emitted in agricultural activities in China, with rice, beef and other grains ranking top three among all products in terms of emissions in production. The greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural activities can be reduced by furthering the opening up of agricultural product market and enhancing technological progress. Based on these judgments, this paper gives an analysis of four simulated scenarios of China’s agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Research findings show that China’s agricultural greenhouse gas emissions can realize early peaking at a low peak value and achieve emissions reduction by a large margin after reaching the peak demand with low self-sufficiency rate of agricultural products and high rate of technological progress. Therefore, efforts need to be made toward such a scenario to push ahead with greenhouse gas emissions reduction in agricultural activities.

Keywords: agricultural greenhouse gas, total emission volume, emission structure, the prospects of emission reduction